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(2004) Synthese 139 (3).
In the Sleeping Beauty problem, Beauty is uncertain whether the outcome of a certain coin toss was heads or tails. One argument suggests that her degree of belief in heads should be 1/3, while a second suggests that it should be 1/2. Prima facie, the argument for 1/2 appears to be stronger. I offer a diachronic Dutch Book argument in favor of 1/3. Even for those who are not routinely persuaded by diachronic Dutch Book arguments, this one has some important morals.
Publication details
DOI: 10.1023/B:SYNT.0000024889.29125.c0
Full citation:
Hitchcock, C. (2004). Beauty and the bets. Synthese 139 (3), pp. 405-420.