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(2005) Synthese 145 (1).
Trying to resolve the two-envelope problem
Casper J. Albers, Barteld Kooi, Willem Schaafsma
pp. 89-109
After explaining the well-known two-envelope ‘paradox’ by indicating the fallacy involved, we consider the two-envelope ‘problem’ of evaluating the ‘factual’ information provided to us in the form of the value contained by the envelope chosen first. We try to provide a synthesis of contributions from economy, psychology, logic, probability theory (in the form of Bayesian statistics), mathematical statistics (in the form of a decision-theoretic approach) and game theory. We conclude that the two-envelope problem does not allow a satisfactory solution. An interpretation is made for statistical science at large.
Publication details
DOI: 10.1007/s11229-004-7665-5
Full citation:
Albers, C. J. , Kooi, B. , Schaafsma, W. (2005). Trying to resolve the two-envelope problem. Synthese 145 (1), pp. 89-109.
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